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<a name="math_toolkit.stat_tut.weg.binom_eg.binomial_quiz_example"></a><a class="link" href="binomial_quiz_example.html" title="Binomial Quiz Example">Binomial
Quiz Example</a>
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<p>
A multiple choice test has four possible answers to each of 16 questions.
A student guesses the answer to each question, so the probability of
getting a correct answer on any given question is one in four, a quarter,
1/4, 25% or fraction 0.25. The conditions of the binomial experiment
are assumed to be met: n = 16 questions constitute the trials; each question
results in one of two possible outcomes (correct or incorrect); the probability
of being correct is 0.25 and is constant if no knowledge about the subject
is assumed; the questions are answered independently if the student's
answer to a question in no way influences his/her answer to another question.
</p>
<p>
First, we need to be able to use the binomial distribution constructor
(and some std input/output, of course).
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="preprocessor">#include</span> <span class="special"><</span><span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">/</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">/</span><span class="identifier">distributions</span><span class="special">/</span><span class="identifier">binomial</span><span class="special">.</span><span class="identifier">hpp</span><span class="special">></span>
<span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">binomial</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="preprocessor">#include</span> <span class="special"><</span><span class="identifier">iostream</span><span class="special">></span>
<span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">cout</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">ios</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">flush</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">left</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">right</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">fixed</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="preprocessor">#include</span> <span class="special"><</span><span class="identifier">iomanip</span><span class="special">></span>
<span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">setw</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">std</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">setprecision</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="preprocessor">#include</span> <span class="special"><</span><span class="identifier">exception</span><span class="special">></span>
</pre>
<p>
The number of correct answers, X, is distributed as a binomial random
variable with binomial distribution parameters: questions n and success
fraction probability p. So we construct a binomial distribution:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">questions</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">16</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// All the questions in the quiz.</span>
<span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">answers</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">4</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Possible answers to each question.</span>
<span class="keyword">double</span> <span class="identifier">success_fraction</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">1.</span> <span class="special">/</span> <span class="identifier">answers</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// If a random guess, p = 1/4 = 0.25.</span>
<span class="identifier">binomial</span> <span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">questions</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">success_fraction</span><span class="special">);</span>
</pre>
<p>
and display the distribution parameters we used thus:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"In a quiz with "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">.</span><span class="identifier">trials</span><span class="special">()</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" questions and with a probability of guessing right of "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">.</span><span class="identifier">success_fraction</span><span class="special">()</span> <span class="special">*</span> <span class="number">100</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" %"</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" or 1 in "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="keyword">static_cast</span><span class="special"><</span><span class="keyword">int</span><span class="special">>(</span><span class="number">1.</span> <span class="special">/</span> <span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">.</span><span class="identifier">success_fraction</span><span class="special">())</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<p>
Show a few probabilities of just guessing:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting none right is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 0.010023</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting exactly one right is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting exactly two right is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">2</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">11</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting exactly "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" answers right by chance is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting all "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">questions</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" answers right by chance is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">questions</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting none right is 0.0100226
Probability of getting exactly one right is 0.0534538
Probability of getting exactly two right is 0.133635
Probability of getting exactly 11 right is 0.000247132
Probability of getting exactly all 16 answers right by chance is 2.32831e-010
</pre>
<p>
These don't give any encouragement to guessers!
</p>
<p>
We can tabulate the 'getting exactly right' ( == ) probabilities thus:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"\n"</span> <span class="string">"Guessed Probability"</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">right</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">for</span> <span class="special">(</span><span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">successes</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">0</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">successes</span> <span class="special"><=</span> <span class="identifier">questions</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">successes</span><span class="special">++)</span>
<span class="special">{</span>
<span class="keyword">double</span> <span class="identifier">probability</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">successes</span><span class="special">);</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">setw</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="number">2</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">successes</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">probability</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="special">}</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Guessed Probability
0 0.0100226
1 0.0534538
2 0.133635
3 0.207876
4 0.225199
5 0.180159
6 0.110097
7 0.0524273
8 0.0196602
9 0.00582526
10 0.00135923
11 0.000247132
12 3.43239e-005
13 3.5204e-006
14 2.51457e-007
15 1.11759e-008
16 2.32831e-010
</pre>
<p>
Then we can add the probabilities of some 'exactly right' like this:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting none or one right is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">+</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting none or one right is 0.0634764
</pre>
<p>
But if more than a couple of scores are involved, it is more convenient
(and may be more accurate) to use the Cumulative Distribution Function
(cdf) instead:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting none or one right is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting none or one right is 0.0634764
</pre>
<p>
Since the cdf is inclusive, we can get the probability of getting up
to 10 right ( <= )
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting <= 10 right (to fail) is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">10</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting <= 10 right (to fail) is 0.999715
</pre>
<p>
To get the probability of getting 11 or more right (to pass), it is tempting
to use
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="number">1</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">10</span><span class="special">)</span></pre>
<p>
to get the probability of > 10
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="number">1</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">10</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is 0.000285239
</pre>
<p>
But this should be resisted in favor of using the <a class="link" href="../../overview/complements.html" title="Complements are supported too - and when to use them">complements</a>
function (see <a class="link" href="../../overview/complements.html#why_complements">why complements?</a>).
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">10</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting > 10 right (to pass) is 0.000285239
</pre>
<p>
And we can check that these two, <= 10 and > 10, add up to unity.
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">BOOST_ASSERT</span><span class="special">((</span><span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">10</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">+</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">10</span><span class="special">)))</span> <span class="special">==</span> <span class="number">1.</span><span class="special">);</span>
</pre>
<p>
If we want a < rather than a <= test, because the CDF is inclusive,
we must subtract one from the score.
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting less than "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" (< "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">") answers right by guessing is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span> <span class="special">-</span><span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting less than 11 (< 11) answers right by guessing is 0.999715
</pre>
<p>
and similarly to get a >= rather than a > test we also need to
subtract one from the score (and can again check the sum is unity). This
is because if the cdf is <span class="emphasis"><em>inclusive</em></span>, then its complement
must be <span class="emphasis"><em>exclusive</em></span> otherwise there would be one possible
outcome counted twice!
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting at least "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"(>= "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">") answers right by guessing is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span><span class="special">-</span><span class="number">1</span><span class="special">))</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">", only 1 in "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">/</span><span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span><span class="special">-</span><span class="number">1</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">BOOST_ASSERT</span><span class="special">((</span><span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span> <span class="special">-</span><span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">+</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">pass_score</span><span class="special">-</span><span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)))</span> <span class="special">==</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">);</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting at least 11 (>= 11) answers right by guessing is 0.000285239, only 1 in 3505.83
</pre>
<p>
Finally we can tabulate some probabilities:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"\n"</span> <span class="string">"At most (<=)"</span><span class="string">"\n"</span><span class="string">"Guessed OK Probability"</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">right</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">for</span> <span class="special">(</span><span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">score</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">0</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">score</span> <span class="special"><=</span> <span class="identifier">questions</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">score</span><span class="special">++)</span>
<span class="special">{</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">setw</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="number">2</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">score</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">setprecision</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="number">10</span><span class="special">)</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">score</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="special">}</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">At most (<=)
Guessed OK Probability
0 0.01002259576
1 0.0634764398
2 0.1971110499
3 0.4049871101
4 0.6301861752
5 0.8103454274
6 0.9204427481
7 0.9728700437
8 0.9925302796
9 0.9983555346
10 0.9997147608
11 0.9999618928
12 0.9999962167
13 0.9999997371
14 0.9999999886
15 0.9999999998
16 1
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"\n"</span> <span class="string">"At least (>)"</span><span class="string">"\n"</span><span class="string">"Guessed OK Probability"</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">right</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">for</span> <span class="special">(</span><span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">score</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">0</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">score</span> <span class="special"><=</span> <span class="identifier">questions</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">score</span><span class="special">++)</span>
<span class="special">{</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">setw</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="number">2</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">score</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">setprecision</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="number">10</span><span class="special">)</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">score</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="special">}</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">At least (>)
Guessed OK Probability
0 0.9899774042
1 0.9365235602
2 0.8028889501
3 0.5950128899
4 0.3698138248
5 0.1896545726
6 0.07955725188
7 0.02712995629
8 0.00746972044
9 0.001644465374
10 0.0002852391917
11 3.810715862e-005
12 3.783265129e-006
13 2.628657967e-007
14 1.140870154e-008
15 2.328306437e-010
16 0
</pre>
<p>
We now consider the probabilities of <span class="bold"><strong>ranges</strong></span>
of correct guesses.
</p>
<p>
First, calculate the probability of getting a range of guesses right,
by adding the exact probabilities of each from low ... high.
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">3</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Getting at least 3 right.</span>
<span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">5</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Getting as most 5 right.</span>
<span class="keyword">double</span> <span class="identifier">sum</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">0.</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">for</span> <span class="special">(</span><span class="keyword">int</span> <span class="identifier">i</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="identifier">low</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">i</span> <span class="special"><=</span> <span class="identifier">high</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">i</span><span class="special">++)</span>
<span class="special">{</span>
<span class="identifier">sum</span> <span class="special">+=</span> <span class="identifier">pdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">i</span><span class="special">);</span>
<span class="special">}</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span><span class="special">.</span><span class="identifier">precision</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="number">4</span><span class="special">);</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting between "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" and "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" answers right by guessing is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">sum</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 0.61323</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.6132
</pre>
<p>
Or, usually better, we can use the difference of cdfs instead:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting between "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" and "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" answers right by guessing is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">high</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 0.61323</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting between 3 and 5 answers right by guessing is 0.6132
</pre>
<p>
And we can also try a few more combinations of high and low choices:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">6</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting between "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" and "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" answers right by guessing is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">high</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 1 and 6 P= 0.91042</span>
<span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">8</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting between "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" and "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" answers right by guessing is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">high</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 1 <= x 8 P = 0.9825</span>
<span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">4</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special">=</span> <span class="number">4</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Probability of getting between "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" and "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">high</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" answers right by guessing is "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">high</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="identifier">cdf</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">low</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="number">1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 4 <= x 4 P = 0.22520</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Probability of getting between 1 and 6 answers right by guessing is 0.9104
Probability of getting between 1 and 8 answers right by guessing is 0.9825
Probability of getting between 4 and 4 answers right by guessing is 0.2252
</pre>
<h5>
<a name="math_toolkit.stat_tut.weg.binom_eg.binomial_quiz_example.h0"></a>
<span class="phrase"><a name="math_toolkit.stat_tut.weg.binom_eg.binomial_quiz_example.using_binomial_distribution_mome"></a></span><a class="link" href="binomial_quiz_example.html#math_toolkit.stat_tut.weg.binom_eg.binomial_quiz_example.using_binomial_distribution_mome">Using
Binomial distribution moments</a>
</h5>
<p>
Using moments of the distribution, we can say more about the spread of
results from guessing.
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"By guessing, on average, one can expect to get "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">mean</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" correct answers."</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Standard deviation is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">standard_deviation</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"So about 2/3 will lie within 1 standard deviation and get between "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">ceil</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">mean</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">-</span> <span class="identifier">standard_deviation</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" and "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">floor</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">mean</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special">+</span> <span class="identifier">standard_deviation</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" correct."</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Mode (the most frequent) is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">mode</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Skewness is "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">skewness</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">By guessing, on average, one can expect to get 4 correct answers.
Standard deviation is 1.732
So about 2/3 will lie within 1 standard deviation and get between 3 and 5 correct.
Mode (the most frequent) is 4
Skewness is 0.2887
</pre>
<h5>
<a name="math_toolkit.stat_tut.weg.binom_eg.binomial_quiz_example.h1"></a>
<span class="phrase"><a name="math_toolkit.stat_tut.weg.binom_eg.binomial_quiz_example.quantiles"></a></span><a class="link" href="binomial_quiz_example.html#math_toolkit.stat_tut.weg.binom_eg.binomial_quiz_example.quantiles">Quantiles</a>
</h5>
<p>
The quantiles (percentiles or percentage points) for a few probability
levels:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Quartiles "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.25</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.25</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Quartiles</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"1 standard deviation "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.33</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.67</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 1 sd</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Deciles "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.1</span><span class="special">))<<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Deciles</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"5 to 95% "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.05</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.05</span><span class="special">))<<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 5 to 95%</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"2.5 to 97.5% "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.025</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.025</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 2.5 to 97.5%</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"2 to 98% "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.02</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.02</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 2 to 98%</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"If guessing then percentiles 1 to 99% will get "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.01</span><span class="special">)</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.01</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" right."</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<p>
Notice that these output integral values because the default policy is
<code class="computeroutput"><span class="identifier">integer_round_outwards</span></code>.
</p>
<pre class="programlisting">Quartiles 2 to 5
1 standard deviation 2 to 5
Deciles 1 to 6
5 to 95% 0 to 7
2.5 to 97.5% 0 to 8
2 to 98% 0 to 8
</pre>
<p>
Quantiles values are controlled by the <a class="link" href="../../../pol_tutorial/understand_dis_quant.html" title="Understanding Quantiles of Discrete Distributions">understanding
discrete quantiles</a> quantile policy chosen. The default is <code class="computeroutput"><span class="identifier">integer_round_outwards</span></code>, so the lower
quantile is rounded down, and the upper quantile is rounded up.
</p>
<p>
But we might believe that the real values tell us a little more - see
<a class="link" href="../../../pol_ref/discrete_quant_ref.html" title="Discrete Quantile Policies">discrete functions</a>.
</p>
<p>
We could control the policy for <span class="bold"><strong>all</strong></span>
distributions by
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="preprocessor">#define</span> <span class="identifier">BOOST_MATH_DISCRETE_QUANTILE_POLICY</span> <span class="identifier">real</span>
<span class="identifier">at</span> <span class="identifier">the</span> <span class="identifier">head</span> <span class="identifier">of</span> <span class="identifier">the</span> <span class="identifier">program</span> <span class="identifier">would</span> <span class="identifier">make</span> <span class="keyword">this</span> <span class="identifier">policy</span> <span class="identifier">apply</span>
</pre>
<p>
to this <span class="bold"><strong>one, and only</strong></span>, translation unit.
</p>
<p>
Or we can now create a (typedef for) policy that has discrete quantiles
real (here avoiding any 'using namespaces ...' statements):
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">policies</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">policy</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">policies</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">discrete_quantile</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">policies</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">real</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">policies</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">integer_round_outwards</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Default.</span>
<span class="keyword">typedef</span> <span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">policies</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">policy</span><span class="special"><</span><span class="identifier">discrete_quantile</span><span class="special"><</span><span class="identifier">real</span><span class="special">></span> <span class="special">></span> <span class="identifier">real_quantile_policy</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<p>
Add a custom binomial distribution called
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">real_quantile_binomial</span></pre>
<p>
that uses
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">real_quantile_policy</span></pre>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="keyword">using</span> <span class="identifier">boost</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">math</span><span class="special">::</span><span class="identifier">binomial_distribution</span><span class="special">;</span>
<span class="keyword">typedef</span> <span class="identifier">binomial_distribution</span><span class="special"><</span><span class="keyword">double</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">real_quantile_policy</span><span class="special">></span> <span class="identifier">real_quantile_binomial</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<p>
Construct an object of this custom distribution:
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">real_quantile_binomial</span> <span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">questions</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="identifier">success_fraction</span><span class="special">);</span>
</pre>
<p>
And use this to show some quantiles - that now have real rather than
integer values.
</p>
<pre class="programlisting"><span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Quartiles "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.25</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.25</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Quartiles 2 to 4.6212</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"1 standard deviation "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.33</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.67</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 1 sd 2.6654 4.194</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"Deciles "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.1</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.1</span><span class="special">))<<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// Deciles 1.3487 5.7583</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"5 to 95% "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.05</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.05</span><span class="special">))<<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 5 to 95% 0.83739 6.4559</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"2.5 to 97.5% "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.025</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.025</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 2.5 to 97.5% 0.42806 7.0688</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"2 to 98% "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.02</span><span class="special">)</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.02</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span> <span class="comment">// 2 to 98% 0.31311 7.7880</span>
<span class="identifier">cout</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">"If guessing, then percentiles 1 to 99% will get "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.01</span><span class="special">)</span>
<span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" to "</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">quantile</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">complement</span><span class="special">(</span><span class="identifier">quiz_real</span><span class="special">,</span> <span class="number">0.01</span><span class="special">))</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="string">" right."</span> <span class="special"><<</span> <span class="identifier">endl</span><span class="special">;</span>
</pre>
<pre class="programlisting">Real Quantiles
Quartiles 2 to 4.621
1 standard deviation 2.665 to 4.194
Deciles 1.349 to 5.758
5 to 95% 0.8374 to 6.456
2.5 to 97.5% 0.4281 to 7.069
2 to 98% 0.3131 to 7.252
If guessing then percentiles 1 to 99% will get 0 to 7.788 right.
</pre>
<p>
See <a href="../../../../../../example/binomial_quiz_example.cpp" target="_top">binomial_quiz_example.cpp</a>
for full source code and output.
</p>
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Distributed under the Boost Software License, Version 1.0. (See accompanying
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